The Reality: Ireland is Off Track for 2030
The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has delivered its 2025 projections for Ireland's greenhouse gas emissions. The message is clear and urgent: even with additional planned measures, Ireland is not on track to meet either its national or EU climate commitments.
Under the current "With Additional Measures" (WAM) scenario, Ireland is projected to achieve a 22.9% emissions reduction by 2030 compared to 2018 levels. This falls far short of the national target of a 51% reduction mandated by the Climate Action and Low Carbon Development (Amendment) Act 2021. Under the EU Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR), Ireland is targeting a 42% cut by 2030 compared to 2005 levels but is only projected to reach a 21.7% reduction under WAM.
Key Sectoral Performance: Where the Gaps Are
Agriculture
Agriculture remains Ireland's largest emissions sector, contributing 37.7% of emissions in 2023. Under WAM, emissions are projected to fall by only 16% by 2030 compared to 2018. Methane reductions, protected urea use, and improved animal management offer potential, but significant diversification measures are not yet fully implemented.
Transport
Transport emissions are projected to fall from 12.3 Mt CO2eq in 2018 to 9.7 Mt CO2eq by 2030 under WAM. This 21% reduction falls short of the 50% sectoral target. Key issues include slower-than-planned electric vehicle adoption (640,000 EVs projected vs. the 945,000 target) and the challenge of achieving behavioural shifts toward public transport and active travel.
Energy Industries
This sector shows better progress. Emissions are projected to fall from 10.6 Mt CO2eq in 2018 to 3.4 Mt CO2eq in 2030, a 68% reduction under WAM. However, this still misses the sectoral target of 75%. Renewable electricity generation is projected to reach 68% by 2030, short of the 80% ambition.
Residential and Buildings
Residential emissions are projected to decrease by 22% by 2030. Heat pump installation is expected to reach 571,000 units, below the 680,000 target. District heating remains underdeveloped, with 0.214 TWh modelled against a 2.7 TWh target.
LULUCF (Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry)
LULUCF emissions are projected to rise by 39 to 95% by 2030 depending on delivery. The sector remains a growing challenge, with forest harvesting and low afforestation rates contributing to poor performance.
The Implementation Gap
Despite the extensive policy framework outlined in the Climate Action Plan 2024, many measures lack a clear and immediate pathway to full implementation. The EPA estimates that unallocated emission savings of up to 26 Mt CO2eq are not included in these projections due to implementation uncertainty.
What Needs to Happen Next
- Accelerate Delivery of Existing Measures
- Policymakers and businesses must ensure that all current planned policies have rapid pathways to implementation. The full Climate Action Plan 2024 ambition must be activated urgently.
- Close the Technology Adoption Gaps
- The shortfall in EV uptake, renewable heat, and biomethane production shows where investment and market signals must intensify. Incentives, regulatory certainty, and supply chain development are essential.
- Focus on Agricultural Transformation
- Agriculture remains the toughest sector. Diversification, new methane-reduction technologies, and improved soil management are critical. Policy clarity, financial supports, and farmer engagement are needed at scale.
- Enhance Land Use Policies
- Greater ambition is required in afforestation, peatland restoration, and grassland management to address the LULUCF gap. Recent reforms under the EU LULUCF Regulation provide both an opportunity and an obligation.
- Strengthen Governance and Accountability
- Clear governance structures, binding sectoral responsibilities, and regular progress reviews must be embedded to maintain accountability and course correction.
The Business and Policy Opportunity
- This is not just a compliance issue. Rapid decarbonisation presents opportunities for new markets, sustainable innovation, and economic leadership. Companies that align early will be better positioned for the global green economy.
Opportunities for Finance and Insurance Sectors
The financial sector is uniquely positioned to support and benefit from Ireland's climate transition. Climate-aligned lending, green bonds, and sustainability-linked financial products are expected to grow strongly as companies seek capital to decarbonise their operations. Institutional investors will play a critical role in financing large-scale renewable energy, energy efficiency retrofits, and sustainable agriculture.
For the insurance sector, climate risk modelling and underwriting services will become increasingly valuable. As physical and transition risks escalate, insurers who can accurately price and manage these exposures will gain competitive advantage. Furthermore, insurance products that incentivise resilience and adaptation measures will become central to both risk management and new business growth.
If you would like to explore what this means for your sector or organisation, contact mary@upthink.works
